Goals and guesses as reference points: a field experiment on student performance

Abstract In this paper, we study overconfidence and goal-setting in academic performance, with without monetary incentives. Students enrolled a microeconomics course were offered the possibility of setting their own target grade before taking part final exam. They also asked to guess immediately after they had taken exam (“post-diction”). general, students overestimated both at post-diction stages. Controlling for several sources bias (cognitive abilities, record self-reported confidence), find that use rewards mitigates overestimation potential achievements eliminates actual through improvement performance. Our results suggest incentives do not cause subjects put more effort into correct guesses but make them Using students’ records measure overall skill, strong Dunning–Kruger which is intensified presence rewards.